Another big fight weekend is here, and that means it is time for Fight Week Picks.
Each Friday, Fight Week will break down the biggest fights in boxing and MMA and make the call. No long list of possibilities — just the pick, the method, a confidence rating and the reason behind it.
This Saturday, August 22, the spotlight falls on Las Vegas, where Rolando “Rolly” Romero defends his WBA welterweight title against Teofimo Lopez, while UFC Sacramento features an important middleweight showdown between Anthony Hernandez and Gregory Rodrigues.
Here are the Fight Week picks.
BOXING
Rolando “Rolly” Romero vs. Teofimo Lopez
Fight Week Pick: Teofimo Lopez
Method: Decision
Confidence: 7/10
This is a dangerous fight for Lopez because Romero has legitimate power and an awkward style that can make opponents uncomfortable. Romero enters at 17-2 with 13 knockouts, while Lopez is 22-2 with 13 stoppages. They are also almost identical physically, with Lopez holding only a slight advantage in height and reach.
But Lopez is the more complete boxer.
When he is focused, Lopez has the speed, footwork and counterpunching ability to control where exchanges take place. Romero’s best chance is to disrupt Lopez early, force him into a firefight and land something big.
The problem is that chasing the knockout could also give Lopez exactly the openings he wants.
The Pick: Lopez survives some dangerous moments, takes control as the fight develops and wins a competitive decision.
Yoenli Hernandez vs. Francisco Daniel Veron
Fight Week Pick: Yoenli Hernandez
Method: TKO
Confidence: 8/10
Hernandez continues to look like one of the most dangerous emerging fighters in the middleweight division.
The unbeaten Cuban enters at 10-0 with nine knockouts and is coming off an impressive fourth-round stoppage of veteran Terrell Gausha. In that fight, Hernandez landed 94 punches, including 74 power shots, before forcing the stoppage.
Veron should give Hernandez rounds, but eventually the combination of size, pressure and power should become too much.
The Pick: Hernandez breaks Veron down and earns another stoppage in the middle-to-late rounds.
Victor Santillan vs. Gary Antonio Russell
Fight Week Pick: Gary Antonio Russell
Method: Decision
Confidence: 6/10
This might be one of the closest boxing matchups of the weekend.
Santillan enters as the interim WBA super bantamweight champion with a 16-2 record and has scored stoppage victories in his last two appearances. Russell brings a 21-1 record and the experience that comes with facing high-level opposition.
Santillan’s southpaw style could make this uncomfortable from the opening bell, but Russell’s experience and ability to box through difficult rounds gives him the slight edge.
This is not a high-confidence selection.
The Pick: Russell wins enough of the close rounds to take a tight decision.
MMA — UFC SACRAMENTO
Anthony Hernandez vs. Gregory Rodrigues
Fight Week Pick: Anthony Hernandez
Method: Submission
Confidence: 7/10
This may be the most interesting fight of the weekend from a style standpoint.
Rodrigues is dangerous everywhere, but especially when he can turn a fight into a striking battle. “Robocop” owns a 19-6 record with 12 knockout victories and averages 5.53 significant strikes landed per minute. He also has legitimate Brazilian jiu-jitsu credentials, so Hernandez cannot simply assume the ground will be safe.
Hernandez, however, has become one of the toughest middleweights in the UFC to deal with over an extended fight. He enters at 15-3 with nine submission victories and has built his success around relentless pressure, grappling and conditioning.
Rodrigues is extremely dangerous early. The longer the fight goes, the more it should favor Hernandez.
The Pick: Hernandez survives Rodrigues’ early offense, increases the pressure and eventually finds a submission.
Serghei Spivac vs. Vitor Petrino
Fight Week Pick: Serghei Spivac
Method: Submission
Confidence: 6/10
Petrino makes this a dangerous prediction.
The Brazilian is 14-2 with eight knockout victories and has shown that his power carries into the heavyweight division. Even more important against Spivac, Petrino owns a 79 percent takedown-defense rate.
But Spivac’s grappling is different from simply defending an occasional takedown.
The No. 6-ranked heavyweight averages 3.82 takedowns per 15 minutes and has eight submission victories. If Spivac can consistently force Petrino against the fence, make him defend clinch positions and eventually bring the fight to the mat, the momentum could change quickly.
The Pick: Petrino has some success standing, but Spivac eventually gets the fight to the ground and finds the submission.
Reinier de Ridder vs. Roman Dolidze
Fight Week Pick: Reinier de Ridder
Method: Submission
Confidence: 6/10
Do not expect many easy positions in this one.
De Ridder has 13 submission victories in his 21 professional wins and has built his career around using his length and grappling to force opponents into bad positions. Dolidze has plenty of grappling ability himself, along with eight knockout wins and three submissions.
The statistic that stands out is Dolidze’s 32 percent UFC takedown defense.
Against a fighter who is constantly searching for dominant grappling positions, that could become a serious problem.
Dolidze has enough power and submission ability to reverse the situation if de Ridder becomes careless, which keeps the confidence level relatively low.
The Pick: De Ridder eventually establishes top control, forces Dolidze to defend for extended stretches and finds a submission.
Fight Week Pick of the Week
Teofimo Lopez over Rolando Romero by Decision
Romero makes almost every fight unpredictable because of his power and unusual rhythm, but Lopez has more ways to win.
If Lopez remains disciplined and does not allow the fight to become a wild exchange of power punches, his speed, movement and counterpunching should separate him from Romero over 12 rounds.
Fight Week Pick: Teofimo Lopez by Decision — Confidence 7/10.
Fight Week Picks — At a Glance
Teofimo Lopez over Rolando Romero — Decision — 7/10
Yoenli Hernandez over Francisco Daniel Veron — TKO — 8/10
Gary Antonio Russell over Victor Santillan — Decision — 6/10
Anthony Hernandez over Gregory Rodrigues — Submission — 7/10
Serghei Spivac over Vitor Petrino — Submission — 6/10
Reinier de Ridder over Roman Dolidze — Submission — 6/10
The predictions are in. Now we find out who makes us look smart — and who makes us regret hitting publish.
Check back with Fight Week throughout the weekend for results, news and post-fight analysis.
Friday Night Pick
Amanda Serrano vs. Lucrecia Manzur
Before Saturday’s action begins, Fight Week has one more pick to make.
Amanda Serrano puts her unified featherweight world championship on the line tonight against Argentina’s Lucrecia Manzur at Pechanga Resort Casino in Temecula, California. Serrano enters at 49-4-1 with 32 knockouts, while Manzur brings a 14-4 record with seven stoppage victories.
Fight Week Pick: Amanda Serrano
Method: TKO
Confidence: 9/10
Manzur deserves credit for taking on one of the most accomplished fighters in women’s boxing, but this is a difficult matchup for the Argentine challenger.
Serrano should have significant advantages in experience, punching power and the ability to control the pace of the fight. The 12-round, two-minute format should also give Serrano plenty of opportunities to apply pressure without having to conserve as much energy between exchanges.
Manzur’s best chance is to stay disciplined, avoid prolonged exchanges and make Serrano work to close the distance. That is much easier said than done against a fighter who has spent years competing at the championship level.
There is also extra motivation for Serrano. With 32 career knockouts, she enters tonight pursuing the all-time women’s boxing knockout record.
The Pick: Serrano steadily increases the pressure, hurts Manzur with combinations and forces a stoppage in the middle-to-late rounds.
Fight Week Friday Night Pick
Amanda Serrano over Lucrecia Manzur — TKO — Confidence 9/10
